ESTOFEX Severe Weather Forecast 29/12/2014 0600UTC

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 29 Dec 2014 06:00 to Tue 30 Dec 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 28 Dec 2014 22:08
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

An upper longwave trough resides over eastern / central Europe and the western / central Mediterranean. In the vicinity of its upper cold core, some low-end instability is created which leads to showers and thunderstorms over the still approx. 17°C warm Mediterranean Sea. As the water vapor mixing ratio is only in a range of 4-5 g/kg, even augmented deep layer shear will not favor organized severe storms. It is likely that most of the storms will not reach the coastal areas and stay over the sea.

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